"Conrad Black Verdict Expected Today"

Says Edward Genson, Black's lawyer after the jury sent a note to the judge saying they were deadlocked on one or more charges.

"Some notes from juries are meaningless, this was a bombshell," CTV legal analyst Steven Skurka said Wednesday.

"We know a number of things: the jury has decided the vast majority of the counts, it appears they have one or a couple of counts left to go."

The betting markets on this are dead and have been for a while. The intrade.com contracts never had enough volume to be reliable but the ftpredict.com All.Charges contact showed the markets belief that Conrad Black would not be convicted on all charges.

The odds looked better for Black the longer that trial went on as it became clear how weak the prosecutions case was. Good luck Mr. Black!

Black Trial Goes To Jury

The governements case agaist Black has been called a sham by nearly every one watching the case. How weak is it? Mark Steyn traces the evolution of the prosecutors case:

But, when the government determines to take you out, they'll use what they need to. This is their third line of attack: First is the "conspiracy" they claimed in opening statements. Second is the "ostrich instruction" they fell back on after bungling the "conspiracy" argument - well, even if it all just sorta happened, the defendants shouldn't have let it. And, if neither of those appeal to the jury, the third line is that, hey, they got a lot of money and you didn't.

Conrad Black Trail Victory: The Winners and Loser

The case against Black is so lacking in evidence all but the staunchest Black haters now show open contempt toward the prosecution. Many trial followers, including the bettors at ftpredict.com, now believe this case is unlikely to result in a conviction. In anticipation of Conrad Blacks acquittal, The First Post has broken down the winners and losers and I’ve added some names as well:

The Winners:

Conrad Black – Duh! But it will be good to see a man of integrity stand up to the prosecution and get off.

Mark Steyn – The very funny writer who has been beating up on the prosecution from the beginning.

Peter Worthington – Like Mark Steyn has been in Conrad Black’s corner from the beginning, rightfully pointing out how weak the case against Black is.

www.ftpredict.com – Intrade never had volume on any of the trial contracts. FTpredict, a play money exchange, was a more active market and moved as the trial developed.

The Losers:

Eric Sussman, Julie Ruder, Edward Siskel, and Jeffrey Cramer – Patty Fitz let the rookies handle this turkey knowing there was no case. Rumor has it at least one of them will be out of a job regardless of the outcome of this trial.

David Radler – The prosecution can still throw the book at him since his deal is contingent on performance. Even with a favorable deal he ends up a lot poorer and permanently tarred as a rat.

Tom Bower – Wrote largely fictional Black biography which will be even more discredited by a Black victory.

Donna – The anon poster on the Conrad Black Trial blog whose intense personal hatred of Conrad Black has blinded her to the facts of the case. I suspect this is Julie Ruder trying to drum up support for the prosecution.

Conrad Black Trial - David Radler Takes the Stand

After several sophorific witnesses the prosecutors star and former Black partner took the stand yesterday. This is make or break for the prosecution since their previous witnesses have been chewed up by the defense. The Black All.Guilty contract price at ftpredict.com has not moved in close to three weeks.

Lord Black Prosecutors “Inept” - Conrad Black Trial

Peter Worthington’s latest column in one quote, “I'm not saying the prosecutors are incompetent, but they don't seem to have anything of substance to show criminal acts."

They should have spent less time posing for glamour shots and more time preparing for the case. Patty Fitz was smart enough not to take this turkey on personally and he didn’t leave the rookies much to work with.

Conrad Black Trial - The Non-Competes: A Summary

1. Approved by the board

2. Approved by the auditors

3. Approved by an independent audit committee

4. A 5 minute search on Edgar brings up the full disclosure in the SEC filings:

Also, as required by CanWest as a condition to the transaction, Ravelston, Hollinger Inc. and Messrs. Black, Radler, Boultbee and Atkinson, entered into non-competition agreements with CanWest pursuant to which each agreed not to compete directly or indirectly in Canada with the Canadian businesses sold to CanWest for a five year period, subject to certain limited exceptions, for aggregate consideration received by Ravelston and the executives of Cdn. $80 million ($53 million) paid by CanWest in addition to the purchase price referred to above, consisting of Cdn. $38 million paid to Ravelston, Cdn. $19 million paid to Mr. Black, Cdn. $19 million paid to Mr. Radler, Cdn. $2 million paid to Mr. Boultbee and Cdn. $2 million paid to Mr. Atkinson.

Talk about full disclosure – you cannot be anymore clear than that.

Prosecution Goes Fishing – Conrad Black Trial Update

Patty Fitz Goes Fishing

The prosecution still hasn’t lost hope of finding evidence against Lord Black. They are scraping the bottom of the barrel to find something, which means that their book deals and private practice offers are in jeopardy:

Prosecutors in Conrad Black's trial are about to finally get their hands on 13 boxes of documents from Lord Black's office in Toronto after nearly two years of legal wrangling…the inventory includes: “Musings,” “Barbara Black Sundries 2002-2003,” “Brascan Share Options,” “CIBC Stock Options,” “CIBC Pledge of Shares to Duncree 2004,” “Tax Information 2005,” “Entertaining Hotels etc.” and “Interview Requests 2005.”

Prosecution Struggling

Prosecutor Julie Ruder continues to flounder. Check out this dud that’s supposed to show Lord Black abused his flight privileges:

“Was there any company policy requiring Conrad Black to use company planes for his personal vacations?” Ms. Ruder asked him. Mr. Creasey replied: “No.”

Awful redirect. It’s nice to see Creasey remember something, but is Julie trying to insult the intelligence of the jurors with these silly questions?

The Betting Markets - Short Lord Black Contracts

This chart from FT Predict shows just how weak the case is against Black is. The odds of Conrad Black being convicted of all charges fell 20% in a week - the longer this trial goes on, the more obvious it becomes the prosecution doesn't have a case.

Prosecutors Case Falling Apart in Black Trial – Intrade Conrad Black Betting, Still No Volume

If there were any volume on the Sell side of Intrade’s BLACK.GUILTY.ALL contracts I would recommend shorting it to the ground. Presently there is no Intrade volume so I’ve been selling the Conrad Black BLACK.GUILTY.ALL contracts at ftpredict.com

So far in this trial we’ve learned:
1. The foundation of the prosecutions case, the non-competes, were approved by the board. Forget reasonable doubt, the state hasn't been able to show that any crime was commited.

2. The prosecutions star witness Creasey is a complete buffoon – and their other star witness is an admitted felon. Read the comical description of the clowns the State is putting on the stand. It ends, “It wasn’t that he made himself look like an idiot, but that he made any prosecutors who’d depend on such a witness look like idiots.”

3. There was nothing wrong with Black’s flights since they “…followed Hollinger's long-established policy for using the jet.”

They appeared costly because of the accounting that was used, the Chicago Tribune explains:

Creasey charged Black and Hollinger for the Bora Bora flight according to its operating cost, per flight hour, for the entire year of 2001. Using his methodology, if the plane had cost $5 million to operate in 2001 and had only been used for one hour, the cost of that one flight would have been $5 million, Greenspan noted.

4. “Hell hath no fury like a bureaucrat scorned.” – NBAT

CBC ran an ominous article on Thursday suggesting that Conrad Black should be more humble or else the State might get REALLY mad. Having unaccountable bureaucrats with vendettas determine what is legal based on how pliable the defendant is cannot be healthy for the justice system. Just like the Enron prosecutors, the prosecutors here are likely hoping to use Black’s scalp to get a real job in the private sector when this thing is over.

“Most people joined the staff of the government offices because the salary and the pension offered were higher than what they could expect to earn in other occupations. They did not renounce anything in serving the government. Civil service was for them the most profitable job they could find.” - Mises

Conrad Black Update - Intrade Betting Still Not Active

The best coverage of the trial continues to be the Toronto Life Conrad Black Trial Blog.

Dealing a blow to the prosecutions case it was revealed today that the Board approved all the payments to Black. No deception was necessary, making the fraud charges less likely to stick. This hasn’t been reflected on the intrade.com yet where the contracts have almost no volume.

Ftpredict.com has been more active on the Conrad Black contracts and I’ve been shorting the Black Guilty All contacts there. A summary of the charges can be found here. This prosecution is a joke and they’ve loaded on 17 charges, no way they’ll nail all of them. So far Black is winning this one.

The Totonto Star has an amusing article about both teams performing to help sway the jury:

On Monday, for instance, Black's lawyer Ed Genson, who uses canes to walk and rides a motorized scooter to court, leaned against the witness box as he questioned a newspaper executive whose Kentucky-based company had purchased a number of newspapers from Hollinger International Inc.

Seeking to introduce a document into evidence, he asked Edward Siskel, an assistant U.S. attorney, whether he wanted to review the paperwork and held it out. When Siskel didn't look up from his computer Genson took a few unsteady steps toward the prosecutors' table.

A colleague appeared to nudge Siskel and he jumped up and walked over to Genson.

Conrad Black Betting

No volume yet on Intrade, but Betus.com has taken over 3,000 bets on the trial – mostly for Black being guilty. Gambling911.com reports: “The company enlisted the aid of legal experts in order to set the odds, and doesn't expect them to change during the trial.”








Peter Worthington nails the main issue of the trial; that what Black did isn’t even a crime. He boldly speculates that Black will walk:

Conrad Black will be found not guilty, as will his four co-defendants, even more so: Ex-Hollinger execs Peter Atkinson, Jack Boultbee and Mark Kipnis.
…
From what has been revealed so far — the main points in both the prosecution and defence cases, and early government witnesses — it seems charges involving racketeering, obstruction, money laundering, mail fraud, etc., are not only unwarranted but wrong.
…
Besides, in the first two weeks of the trial there has been no evidence produced that clearly indicates a crime committed — and never mind the essential “beyond a reasonable doubt.” There’s just nothing.

It wouldn’t be the first time that charge has been leveled against rouge prosecutor and insufferable showboat Patty Fitzgerald.

Market Skewed In Black Case, Conrad Black News

Only a one-way market on the Ask is being made – no volume yet. This is not surprising since it’s too early to get a feel for how the charges will play out.

Black Tales:

Toronto Life talks about what Black’s trial would have been like in Canada where the, “accused has considerable leeway to unilaterally dispense with a jury and stand trial by judge alone.”

Canada Nation Post discusses the CYA document that was put together after Black left. The smear job has been called, “very prejudicial” and won’t be read by the jurors.

Humorist PJ O’Rourke, apparently not having read about Jeff Skilling in The Smartest Guys in the Room, says about the case, “Conrad Black is just so much smarter and sexier than Enron.”

And soon you’ll know where to mail those FIJA pamphlets to.

Conrad Black Resources – No Volume Yet on Intrade Contacts

Peter Worthington of the Toronto Sun http://www.torontosun.com/News/Columnists/Worthington_Peter/

Janet Whitman of my beloved NY Post – Link is Google news since the Post online is awful http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&ie=...

This one is new but looks interesting:
The Black Blog: http://www.torontolife.com/blog/conrad-black-trial/

Good Luck Mr. Black

They have gone after the oil producers (BP, a target because of Browne), the gaming bosses (David Carruthers), and now Conrad Black. Conrad Black, another victim of the war on capitalism, has chosen to fight the charges.

Intrade has posted several contracts with no volume yet:

http://www.intrade.com/news/mainpage.jsp?article=news_107.html