Prediction markets and the madness of crowds

Paul Murphy of ZDnet on Global Warming PMs:

Suppose, therefore, we list the claims made in each of the ten most cited articles appearing on realclimate.org during the first quarter of 2007 and sell a bundle of bets based on how many of these stories will have been substantially discredited by some deadline like April 1st, 2010.

Once we nailed down the details we'd have a bundle of eleven bets from which I would keep my "all ten" bet, trades my "zeros" to jtmodel for his tens, and hope to sell enough of the other nine to get as many more "all ten"s as I could.

The left (and neocons) have a long history of failed initiatives, I think even they aren't dumb enough to bet when they are so sure to lose.