The Death of Pundits

One of the yet to be realized benefits of prediction markets is that hopefully it will put many professional pundits out of business. These bores make a living constructing sound bites and being “controversial” and rank about a picometer above reality TV “stars” in terms of respectability. Think of professional wrestling in suits: Ohh that Ann Coulter isn’t she just soooo controversial?? And Al Franken, wow is he snarky!! He uses humor to really showing those stupid Bush lovers up!!! –You get the idea, its only theatre.

If the concerns of the people on every topic can be quantified what is there to discuss? People aren’t entitled to their own facts. The number is, what the number is and that should be the end of the discussion. The question of whether Democrats or Republicans control the House becomes moot when you can say with certainty that the data indicate that the Democrats have X percent chance based on all the information now available. [Of course if you believe in property rights, individual freedom, fiscal responsibility, sound money, and a smaller State the question of who controls Congress has been irrelevant for a while.]

Anyway, Forbes says this guy is the best of the best when it comes to following elections:

As far as race-by-race election forecasting goes, Cook and his friend Stuart Rothenberg, who publishes the rival Rothenberg Political Report, more or less have the market cornered.

"They created this industry, and there's really no one else in the same ballpark as the two of them...”
…
Cook has been forecasting a Democratic takeover of the House since early August. But he was beaten to the punch by Rothenberg, who predicted it back in July.

The TS GOP House control contract closed below 50 for the first time on May 15th.