The Lamont Fade - TradeSports CT Primary

With polls for the CT Senate primary opening at 6am, the TS odds have put Lamont as a lock with 80% chance of winning. While it is tempting to just ride the favourite in this race I think that a smarter play will be to fade the favorite here (by buying Lieberman or selling Lamont). What we've seen in past close races where the odds are far outside the polls is a pull toward parity leading up to the election day. This one is going to cut it close since Lamont clearly has the momentum. The Lieberman/Lamont contract is worth buying/selling till Lamont is down to 60-70.

Another trade to look at is the GOP senate control. Its at 83 now and is less subject to temporary whims like this CT Primary. Since Lieberman says he will run as an Independent if he loses the primary, the split vote will be very good for a GOP victory, turning a good chance of maintaining Senate control to a better one. If Lieberman does end up winning the Primary and running as a Democrat its not a state the GOP was expecting anyway. Buy it.