A Threshold is Crossed

As you can see from the chart Mr. Calderon has taken the lead from Mr. Obrador in the 2006 Mexican elections. Supported by current president Fox, and waging a vicious attack campaign against Obrador has moved Calderon to the favourite. Madrazo, which the polls put at 20% and Tradesports puts at 1% will not be a factor. The election will be held on July 2nd so there is still plenty of time for surprises; the smart play in betting elections so far has been a pull to parity the closer the elections get. So the farther away the favourites get from 50 the better the bet looks.

Foreign elections are always tough to predict, the Canadian presidential election was the latest example, betting the favourites has not been a winning strategy.